Oddsmakers have Nuggets as a big favorite to beat Timberwolves

The bookies are respecting the reigning champions against the upstart young guns, making the Denver Nuggets odds on favorites for their second-round series with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Last year the two Northwest Divison foes met in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, where the Nuggets beat the Wolves in five games. But Denver’s most important win against Minny for this coming bout happened on April 10, when the Nuggets scored a 116-107 win in Game 80 over the Wolves. That victory is what gave 57-win Denver hosting duties for this second-round matchup against 56-win Minnesota.

That game was like many games between these two teams recently though, Karl-Anthony Towns was out. In fact, the lone time these two teams have met in the last two years with their starting fives playing was in Game 5 of the regular season this year, a 110-89 November rout in favor of Minny. The Wolves were not healthy when they met the Nuggets in the first round last year, down both defensive stopper Jaden McDaniels and NBA Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid. And all the other matchups for the teams either happened when players were hurt, resting, or before trades were made that rounded them into form.

When we see the Nuggets and Wolves on Saturday, it’ll really be the first time we’re seeing the matchup as it was designed to be. Of course, the architect is Tim Connelly, the man who built the Nuggets and then left to build the Wolves.

Despite a lot of uncertainty about how the matchup plays in the real world, the bookmakers see it on paper and are confident in the Nuggets. Making Denver a big favorite at -215, which implies odds around 69%. The Wolves are +172 for the series with the highest favorite outcome being Denver to win in five games followed by Denver to win in seven then six then a Wolves win in Game 6. Vegas only has the Wolves winning 4-2 as more a more likely outcome than a Nuggets sweep.

Accordingly, Denver is favored for Saturday’s Game 1 at -6.

Denver will need the rest between rounds with Jamal Murray, Reggie Jackson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all dealing with leg injuries. Slowing Anthony Edwards will be a giant task after he went red hot against the Suns in his team’s sweep.

Edwards is a year older leads a team that’s a lot better than a last spring. The Wolves have had more time to gel after a massive trade for Rudy Gobert before last season. Mike Conley has found a fountain of youth and McDaniels and Reid have only gotten better next to a more willing Towns.

The matchup will likely come down to what MVP favorite Nikola Jokic can do against Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Gobert.

The series begins on Saturday and the full schedule for it can be found here.