THREE NUMBERS

Carson Wentz won’t lack for motivation against Broncos

Jan 5, 2025, 1:40 AM | Updated: 1:47 am

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Carson Wentz will walk into Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday looking to revitalize his career when he starts in place of Patrick Mahomes.

It will mark the second consecutive season in which he’s led a team for a regular-season-ending game after it had sealed its playoff seeding. Of course, last year, when he guided the Los Angeles Rams in their Week 18 game, it was against another team that was locked into its postseason spot. These Denver Broncos are different than last year’s San Francisco 49ers, who had the No. 1 seed in the NFC salted away.

Wentz had a 99.8 passer rating in that win over San Francisco 12 months ago. And at times, he looked like the quarterback who was worthy of the No. 2 overall pick in 2016 — and then, one year later, appeared on a collision course with an MVP trophy before tearing his ACL in December as the Philadelphia Eagles soared to their only Super Bowl win.

If that talent can manifest on Sunday, the Broncos might have a problem.

“I think when you draft these quarterbacks, top five, top 10, I mean, the talent’s obviously there, right?” Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said. “For most young quarterbacks, it’s system, it’s support system, it’s protection.

And, sometimes guys come into the league and they’re drafted top 10, it’s probably — the team’s probably not very good, you know, so that’s common sense. But when guys have a chance to sit back and watch and learn the game and get to a better system with better teammates and better coaching, they thrive.”

 

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Andy Reid’s system can offer Wentz the opportunity to thrive. And with a year under Reid preceded by a season under Rams head coach Sean McVay, the nine-year veteran quarterback has received a further education in the art of quarterbacking.

Sunday offers him the chance to show what he’s learned — and demonstrate whether he has worked his way back into consideration to be some team’s starting quarterback.

Still, Wentz has a history of giving defenses opportunities for takeaways. And in a similar vein to previous contests against the Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns and the Indianapolis Colts, the Broncos defense should have the chance to rediscover the turnover touch that allowed it to compensate for allowing 410 yards per game in those three contests.

1 every 54.3 plays

That is Wentz’s fumble rate for his career. Among 63 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 total plays — pass attempts plus times sacked and rushing attempts — in the last 10 seasons, that is the third-worst fumble rate, ahead of only Josh McCown and Justin Fields.

Wentz’s interception rate isn’t as bad, but in his last nine starts, he’s been picked off once every 28.5 attempts — far worse than the rate in his first 84 starts of one interception every 53.2 attempts.

2-2

The Chiefs’ record under Andy Reid when playing “meaningless” regular-season games with their playoff seed already set heading into the final week. This includes a 13-12 win over the injury-strangled Los Angeles Chargers last year in which neither team’s offense mustered a touchdown.

4-16

The record for teams in games started by Wentz when he’s sacked at least 4 times. Against a Broncos defense averaging 3.6 sacks per game this season — with a franchise-record tally of 58 — this is notable, as is the fact that his career sack rate ranks 41st of those afore-mentioned 63 quarterbacks over the last decade.

Wentz-led teams have also lost 10 of his last 11 starts when opponents sack him 4 or more times. When sacked one or zero times, teams quarterbacked by Wentz are 23-5.

And in a similar vein to his interceptions, his sack rate has spiked in his last nine starts, too — from one every 15.5 pass plays in his first 84 starts to one every 10.2 pass plays in his last nine starts. These are trends Wentz hopes to reverse Sunday.

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