Nikola Jokic is trailing in ESPN’s latest NBA MVP straw poll

Despite averaging an efficient triple-double Nikola Jokic is not the leader in the clubhouse at the All-Star Break in the NBA MVP discussion.

Jokic is seeking to join an elite class of five players ever to win the award four times and is currently second in the race according to ESPN’s latest straw poll—which has proven to be a very accurate tool. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the pack, followed by the Nuggets star center, in what is shaping up to be a two-horse heat. All 100 experts polled, which come from a similar group to those actually voting on the MVP have picked one of the two players, and all but one of the century had the other guy in second place.

ESPN’s 2024-25 NBA MVP All-Star Break Straw Poll

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: (70) 910
2. Nikola Jokic: (30) 788
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 430
4. Jayson Tatum: 299
5. Donovan Mitchell: 73

The biggest shift from the first straw poll comes with preseason MVP favorite Luka Doncic’s injury taking him out of the MVP conversation. While Antetokounmpo holds steady in third, though he’s lost all 19 of the first-place votes he picked up two months ago. The voting works by asking media members from every NBA market, just like the real award, for their ballot with a point-based system for their top-five picks. The latest straw poll was conducted in a 48-hour period ending on Monday.

The Thunder just lost their 10th game of the season on Thursday and with it, SGA dropped from -700 to -470 to win the MVP in one night, according to oddsmakers. Any loss by OKC impacts SGA’s case a lot because—Jokic has the better individual numbers, but SGA is on the team performing stronger.

Jokic is averaging 29.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, 10.2 assists and 1.8 steals a game on 57.7% shooting from the field, 45% from deep and 82% from the arc. Those are the best marks or second-best numbers of his already three-time MVP career. And his triple-double average would make him the only non-point guard ever to do that in a season, joining now teammate Russell Westbrook (four times) and Oscar Robertson as the only ones to do that and Jokic even bests them as the only player to do so while shooting over 50% from the field. And the Nuggets have surged through the standings lately, at 36-19 just a half-game back of second-place Memphis in the West.

The Thunder are tied for the league’s best record at 44-10 and SGA is their leader. The NBA’s best scorer thus far is tallying 32.5 a night, helped by his 8.8 trips a game to the free throw line where he’s shooting 89.7%. SGA is adding 6.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds a game on 52.3% shooting, 35.9% from long-distance. SGA’s line of 30-5-5-1-1 in a season has only been accomplished five times, Michael Jordan (twice), LeBron James (twice), Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Dwyane Wade.

The separation between the top two and the rest of the ballot is unprecedented across the previous 18 straw polls conducted since the 2016-17 season, ESPN shares. The closest two players have come was during the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season, when Antetokounmpo and James combined for every first-place vote and all but two second-place selections. At season’s end, Antetokounmpo won a second MVP with James finishing second picking up any remaining first-place votes—the last time just two players collected all the first-place votes for the award.

Whoever of the two wins, it will be the seventh consecutive international MVP, and if it goes to SGA—the first guard to win the award since James Harden in 2018.

Jokic was in the lead of the MVP race back around Christmas when ESPN did its last poll. Funny enough, SGA’s case has been built a lot on team success and Denver has played its best basketball since the voters were last polled, and yet Jokic has dropped in the race. Working against Jokic is that the player leading ESPN’s first MVP straw poll has not won the award at season’s end. Part of this is due to Embiid’s injuries but Jokic will look to break the trend by claiming a fourth MVP. Some will say the Nuggets center was already robbed of four and should be chasing a fifth. Still, only Wilt Chamberlain, James, Jordan, Bill Russell and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar have claimed the award at least four times—meaning Jokic would more or less cement himself as a top 10 player in the history of hoops.