Sean Payton called his shot a year ago at the Combine

INDIANAPOLIS — Sean Payton never lacks for confidence.

But when he made his statement about quarterback evaluation last year at the NFL Scouting Combine, it still left plenty of people within the draft and personnel community taken aback.

Payton had been an integral part of developing a young quarterback earlier in his career, as he coached Tony Romo from his rookie undrafted season with the Dallas Cowboys for three seasons before moving on to New Orleans as its head coach.

But in New Orleans — as was the case when he called plays for the New York Giants — success came with a veteran import, the record-breaking Drew Brees. With the Giants, Payton successfully revived the career of Kerry Collins.

So, there wasn’t a massive draft-and-develop track record. Still, that didn’t keep Payton from proclaiming his draft-and-develop bona fides to the gaggle of media on hand for his scouting-combine press conference last year.

“I think we’ll be really good at this,” Payton said, “and I think to some degree, we’re glad that a lot of people aren’t.”

Sean Payton, last Feb. 27 on evaluating draft QBs: “Sometimes it’s not as difficult as we make it out to be, and then sometimes, listen, it’s very difficult. And so, I think we’ll be really good at this. And I think to some degree, we’re glad that a lot of people aren’t.” pic.twitter.com/FO25H50nvd

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) November 21, 2024

Fast-forward 12 months. Bo Nix hasn’t arrived, but he’s already checked off a slew of firsts and appears well en route to success. He blossomed rapidly after a ragged start to the season. He learned, grew and applied the knowledge back to the playing field for a rookie season that would have had the NFL ablaze had it not been for Jayden Daniels’ campaign in Washington.

The Broncos got the sixth quarterback off the board last year. At worst, he was the second-best last season behind Daniels — and by the season’s final month was making throws on which he wasn’t connecting in September.

Seems like he and the Broncos knew what they were doing.

Of course, Payton’s seen enough failure to know — and he expounded upon this a year ago at this time.

“The quarterback position is difficult. Sometimes — and this is not just recent. We go all the way back to the run-and-shoot,” Payton said. “We can list a number of guys that were successful that we didn’t expect to be successful and guys that weren’t.”

And as he noted last year, figuring out which ones are which comes down to a clear factor that is hard to quantify.

“With quarterbacks I think one think that’s hard to measure is their ability to multi-task and process and make decisions,” Payton continued. “It’s one thing — like, you can visit with someone, they can be intelligent but man, how quickly can they deliver the information and how quickly can they get through the progression? Are they accurate?

“There’s some fundamental things that we have to see that are present and so sometimes it’s not as difficult as we make it out to be. And sometimes it’s very difficult.”

The failures of teams far and wide show how difficult it can be. And the Broncos’ post-Super Bowl 50 trek through the wilderness furthers that evidence.

But last year, Payton and Co. made it look easy — and he returns to Indianapolis as the most prescient man in the city.