Oddsmakers think Nuggets-Clippers is the most evenly-matched series in the first round

The Denver Nuggets have had a chaotic final week to the NBA regular season. Despite a shocking coaching change in the heat of a crowded chase in the Western Conference to avoid the Play-In Tournament, Denver won the final three games of the season to reach 50 wins to lock up the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference.

The Nuggets awaited the thrilling finish of Clippers-Warriors to decide who they were going to be hosting at Ball Arena in the opening round of the playoffs. After James Harden came alive late in the game, it was set in stone that the Nuggets and the Clippers would be meeting in the playoffs for the first time since the Western Conference Semifinals in the NBA Bubble when the Nuggets came back from a 3-1 series deficit.

Of the four playoff series that are set (the other four are waiting on the results of the Play-In to be finalized), this series is the closest from an odds perspective. On Fanduel Sportsbook, the Nuggets are a slight favorite to win the series (-120) despite having home-court advantage, which played a crucial role in the regular season as the home team won all four games when the two teams met up.

Lakers-Timberwolves is the next closest series by the books, as the Lakers are a -172 to advance.

The oddsmakers have the two most likely outcomes of Denver’s series being a Nuggets victory in seven games or a Clippers victory in six games (both are +490). A sweep in favor of the Nuggets is a long shot at +1,120, while the odds of Denver losing a Game 7 at home for the third time in the Nikola Jokic era sit at +630. The series lasting six games, no matter the winner, is the most likely outcome at +200.

Another interesting bet that the books have for Denver’s series is whether or not there will be a game-winning buzzer-beater in any game. To no surprise, zero buzzer-beaters is the heavy favorite (-2,000) while one buzzer-beater has realistic odds at +1,000. In terms of players, Kawhi Leonard is the odds-on favorite to hit a buzzer-beater (+4,000), followed by Nikola Jokic (+4,200) and Jamal Murray (+4,900).

Leonard has one of the most iconic game-winners in NBA history, his suspenseful fadeaway against the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 7 of the 2019 Eastern Conference Semifinals. He also made one against the Kings back in March. Jokic has made two in his career, the 39-footer against Golden State last year and a falling, one-handed shot against the Dallas Mavericks in 2019. For Jamal Murray, he has only made one buzzer-beater in his career, when he hit a stepback jumper over Anthony Davis to give Denver the win over the Lakers in Game 2 of the first round last year.

These two teams split the regular season series at two games a piece. However, while the Nuggets have sputtered to the finish line, the Clippers have won 17 of the final 20 games of the season. Back on March 4, the Clippers were sitting in 9th place in the Western Conference while the Nuggets were just a half-game back of second place. James Harden and Kawhi Leonard have been playing great basketball as of late, and the Nuggets will need Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to find their stride offensively to make it to the second round for the third consecutive season.

Tip off for Game 1 is set for 1:30 p.m. on Saturday from Ball Arena.