How far would Ashton Jeanty have to fall for the Broncos to pounce?

If Ashton Jeanty was still on the board when the Denver Broncos went on the clock with the No. 20 overall selection, picking him would seem to be the obvious call, right?

Yes, running backs are fungible assets with high attrition. Analytically speaking, the positional value of drafting a runner in the first round — even in the back half of it — isn’t there. But Jeanty is a unique blend of speed and power — and with 66 receptions over the last two seasons and six touchdown catches, proficiency as a pass catcher, too. So, he could not only be an every-down back, but one with some “joker” possibilities, too.

To that end, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah has him in a lofty spot on his big board: No. 3.

“I think he is extremely high-floor to go along with an extremely high ceiling,” Jeremiah told a gaggle of media from around the nation — and beyond — on a conference call Thursday. “I think he’s a special, special player.”

 

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But he also plays a position at which there is ample depth in the draft — not to mention the positional-value argument which has largely worked against running backs going off the board early in the draft. There were as many top-10 running backs in the 2017 draft alone as there were in the seven drafts that followed.

The top-10 running backs since 2016 read like a who’s who of the NFL’s elite rushing class in recent years: Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson, who nearly hit the 1,500-yard mark for the Falcons last season. Fournette and Barkley helped power teams to Super Bowl wins — although neither did that for the team that originally drafted them.

Of course, the two NFL players with the most yardage from scrimmage since 2017 were Day 2 picks: Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara.

And that serves as a reminder of the quality of running back available on Day 2 of this year’s draft. Jeremiah pointed to Texas’ Jaydon Blue and Central Florida’s RJ Harvey as two runners who fit the “joker” template.

Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, Kansas’ Devin Neal, North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton … the list of viable runners beyond Jeanty is long. And it stretches into Day 3, where SMU’s Brashard Smith and Arizona’s Jacory Croskey-Merritt were stars of the all-star circuit.

Enough running backs are out there to where teams could pass on a running back early — even one with potential as ominous as Jeanty possesses.

“The interesting part is — and just a lot of this comes from talking to people around the league — is because of the depth of the class and it’s really, it’s really good that, man, if you have multiple needs maybe you could see a scenario where teams are going to punt on running backs early,” Jeremiah said, “and then just know that I still got some some options there on Day Two.”

Teams might make that decision even with an environment that is tilting back toward the historical primacy of the position as second only to quarterback in terms of offensive propulsion.

“And that’s with the full appreciation that there is there is more love for running backs around the league after this last season with all those free agents,” Jeremiah said. “All the leading rushers in the league were all free agents that showed their value and then we’ve seen with some of these young backs in the league what they’ve done, led by Jahmyr Gibbs.”

Gibbs went to Detroit with the No. 12 overall pick two years ago. It seems hard to believe that Jeanty would fall that far, let alone to No. 20. Jeremiah acknowledged he’d be “shocked” if Jeanty descended to that point.

“His tape is so good, the character’s so good, all that stuff. Even if teams are going to be patient on the running backs, I think once we get through it and get to the end, I think, Jeanty, it’ll be off the board,” Jeremiah said.

But if he did fall …

“That would be an interesting conversation with those guys there,” said Jeremiah, who still mocked Jeanty to fall past the Broncos. In his exercise, they picked Michigan tight end Colston Loveland.

“Jeanty’s my third overall player. Loveland’s my seventh overall player,” Jeremiah continued. “So I think they’d both be home-run picks.”