Shedeur Sanders isn’t on Broncos’ radar — but he could impact their draft

Shedeur Sanders isn’t on the Denver Broncos’ radar, of course. The blessing of Bo Nix is that Denver has been able to go through the draft process this year without thinking about quarterback.

Hallelujah.

But quarterback might find its way toward an impact on the Broncos’ draft outlook — specifically if Sanders tumbles through Round 1.

Should Sanders remain in the top 10 — specifically, if his descent stops at the No. 9 overall choice, currently held by the New Orleans Saints — there should be little impact on the Broncos. But if the Saints don’t select Sanders — a legitimate possibility — it’s game on.

“I know Dan Orlovsky doesn’t think that [Sanders] is a great fit with Kellen Moore considering the quarterbacks that Kellen Moore’s had,” ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said on a conference call Wednesday.

And if Sanders tumbles into the teens and remains available when the Broncos go on the clock at No. 20, their phone may ring.

“It’s a possibility. It’s happened before. Aaron Rodgers slid to 24,” Kiper said. “Brett Favre slid out of the first round entirely. Boomer [Esiason] slid out of the first round entirely. Geno Smith slid out of the first round entirely. Chad Pennington dropped down to 18; remember that? … So to me, yes, it can happen.”

And the offers could prove tempting, even though their roster is in better shape now than it has been in years.

The right deal for the 20th pick could bolster the Broncos’ Day 2 draft capital, and ample depth of prospects at running back, tight end and defensive line — all areas with short- or long-term need — the Broncos could cross all of those items off the checklist with the right deal.

SHEDEUR SANDERS AND THE QUARTERBACK PREMIUM

The “Quarterback Premium” refers to the trend of trades over the last decade involving teams moving up to select a quarterback — and doing so with deals that required them to surrender more than would have been equitable per any of the draft-pick value charts used to assess pick value in deals.

Even moving up one choice last year to select J.J. McCarthy cost the Vikings 13.8 points of draft-pick value.

But a better example is the draft trade the Chicago Bears made in 2021 with the New York Giants to move up nine spots to the No. 11 pick to select Justin Fields. The 11th choice was worth 1,250 points of value.

The Giants received the No. 20 pick (800 points), the No. 164 pick (25.8 points), as well as first- and fourth-round selections in the 2022 NFL Draft. Even if those 2022 picks had been at the end of those rounds, those choices would have been worth a combined 627 points, meaning the Giants would have had a net gain of no less than 203.3 points when viewing all draft years equally.

That is the Quarterback Premium in action.

So, this could prove relevant if quarterback-needy teams call the Broncos about a potential deal if Sanders falls and is still available when Denver is on the clock.

Take the Cleveland Browns, for instance. They hold the No. 33 pick — the first choice in the second round. That choice is worth 560 points on the Jimmy Johnson-created draft-value chart.

Cleveland would need to make up 290 points of value for an equitable trade. The No. 67 overall pick — the third choice in Round 3 — wouldn’t do it; at 255 points, that would fall 35 points short.

Add the No. 94 pick at 124 points, and the Broncos would pick up a net gain of 89 point of value.

That’s where the Quarterback Premium comes in. And if other teams are interested — perhaps the Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers or Los Angeles Rams, all of whom have short- or long-term quarterback needs to varying degrees — Denver could weigh offers.

It’s good to make a fair deal. But “fair” when a quarterback is involved is something different than usual.

Now, if Omarion Hampton is still on the board at the No. 20 overall pick, this might not make sense. He appears to be one of the few true three-down backs in the draft.

But if he’s gone, as some project, the Broncos might find that if Sanders is on the board, they can pick up “more darts” than they could have possibly imagined — and too many to pass up.