What if… Green Bay hadn’t been called for holding against the Broncos last year?
Jun 17, 2024, 2:30 PM | Updated: 4:31 pm
When the Denver Broncos defeated the Green Bay Packers last October, the win was so unsatisfying to Sean Payton that he was left circling around while parking near a sushi restaurant at dinner that night, asking himself a simple question:
One might think finding the answer is probably best left for Payton’s own self-reflection — or a chat with a psychologist.
Sean Payton: “ … That was a good win for us, & yet, I'm driving home last night, heading to get sushi — I don't like sushi — & finding myself, like, circling around the parking lot, like, 'All right, why can't I be happy?' Well, you're searching for that perfect game." … pic.twitter.com/zTbxAyXCf3
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) October 23, 2023
But there may have been another level to it, upon reflection. Because that 19-17 Broncos win — preserved by an Elgton Jenkins holding call in Denver territory that derailed Jordan Love and the Packers driving to a potential game-winning, walk-off score — might have changed everything you know about the Broncos and where they stand in the 2024 offseason.
That win came with some butterfly-effect consequences.
IT HELPED KEEP THE BRONCOS OUT OF THE TRADE MARKET …
… and that, in turn, helped keep the Broncos’ environment functional as they prepared to host the Chiefs seven days later.
Think for a moment about the potential atmosphere in Broncos Country if the team sat at 1-6. No Broncos fan 55 years of age or younger would have ever seen such a start, with the last one coming in 1967. (That was Lou Saban’s first year in a rebuilding project, so I probably would have made cross-era parallels.)
When you consider that just one of 137 teams since the AFL-NFL merger to start 1-6 made the playoffs — and that one happened in 1970 — it’s clear the Broncos are done, as far as realistic consideration of a postseason berth is concerned. Yes, the 2022 Lions started 1-6 and missed the postseason on a tiebreaker, but the two 1-6 teams in 2023 finished with the two worst records in the NFL; that outcome is far more likely.
At 2-5, the Broncos chose to stand pat with the trade deadline approaching nine days after the Packers game — to wait and see on the Chiefs outcome. But would they have been more likely to deal from 1-6, historically a point of no return?
Those rumors would have hung over the Broncos all week. Perhaps they even would have resulted in an immediate trade. As ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported, the Broncos had an offer of third- and fifth-round picks for wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. That exceeded what they eventually got from Cleveland.
In this or any other version of the multiverse, the Broncos wouldn’t have dealt Pat Surtain. Let’s make that clear.
But there were calls on Courtland Sutton, Lloyd Cushenberry and Justin Simmons. And in a deflated environment after a sixth loss in seven games, would the Broncos have emerged from the tunnel on Oct. 29 belching fire as they did when they faced the Chiefs?
In other words, the win over Kansas City that snapped a 16-game series losing streak might not have happened. And in that instance, the Broncos are 1-7 at the bye.
BEATING THE PACKERS POTENTIALLY DELAYED THE CHANGE FROM WILSON TO STIDHAM
In the 3-5 reality, the Broncos considered a quarterback change even after the team defeated the Packers and Chiefs to go into the Week 9 bye on a 2-game winning streak.
But if they were 1-7 at that juncture — and with perhaps multiple players dealt — Payton would have had the evidence he needs to make a switch.
After all, the Broncos would have been 5-18 in Russell Wilson’s starts with the team to that point. What would they have been clinging to?
Thus, enter Jarrett Stidham. Perhaps with time, he would have become more functional than he showed in the two starts he logged. But remember, this is also in an environment in which the Broncos were trade-deadline sellers.
And if Stidham — and the team — had struggled, well …
THE BRONCOS MIGHT HAVE A DIFFERENT ROOKIE QB NOW
… and it wouldn’t be borne out of a lack of fondness for Bo Nix. Rather, it’s not hard to picture a cascading set of circumstances that result in the Broncos crashing home with the league’s second-worst record.
Going 2-15 to pick No. 1 overall probably would have been a stretch. Remember, the Broncos logged two wins against teams quarterbacked by Easton Stick — who came in midway through the first Chargers game on Dec. 10 and played from start to finish in the Dec. 31 rematch — and another against a Browns team that started Dorian Thompson-Robinson, as they had not yet figured out that they had the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year — Joe Flacco — in their midst.
But a Broncos team trying to figure things out with Stidham — and weakened personnel-wise by multiple deadline deals — probably doesn’t win close games against Buffalo and Minnesota after the trade deadline. And with the afore-mentioned losses to Green Bay and Kansas City, that takes an 8-9 team and leaves it 4-13 … with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, as Denver would win the tiebreaker over Washington and New England with a weaker strength of schedule.
Does that mean that Jayden Daniels — a lauded Heisman Trophy winner emerging from an LSU program brimming with deep connections to the operation of Payton — becomes the Broncos’ pick at No. 2? One can’t dismiss the possibility of the Broncos landing Daniels, who referred to Payton as “the guru” at the NFL Scouting Combine.
And thanks to a greater willingness to deal at the deadline, the Broncos have more draft capital on Days 2 and 3. Do those extra picks spur them to move up on Day 2? Do they stand pat and, in addition to adding players like Jonah Elliss and Troy Franklin, nab tight end Jared Wiley, currently tipped as a potential long-term Travis Kelce successor in Kansas City?
And beyond the Broncos, do trades made by the team rearrange the outcome? What if the Broncos trade Simmons to an AFC contender? Does the ultimate Patrick Mahomes ball-tracker make a difference in the postseason? And with Mahomes not in Super Bowl LVIII, do Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy take home a Lombardi Trophy?
It’s a different reality. And it all began with a holding call that didn’t derail the Packers, but might have changed everything for the Broncos.
What do you think would have happened?
Watch the June 17 edition of Orange and Blue Today on YouTube and chime in via the comment section, or respond to @MaseDenver or @cecillammmey on the social-media platform formerly known as Twitter.
