Broncos made the wrong 2-point call, but it shouldn’t have come down to that

CINCINNATI — For the Denver Broncos, it shouldn’t have come down to needing a desperate heave in the final seconds of regulation just to have a chance to force overtime — a chance that only happened because Zac Taylor and the Bengals mismanaged their way out of what should have been a game-winning field goal in the final seconds of regulation.

It shouldn’t have come down to a decision as to whether to go for two with 8 seconds remaining in regulation after Marvin Mims Jr. emerged from a Bengal sandwich with Bo Nix’s pass toward the north end zone of Paycor Stadium.

All that happened because for the better part of 60 minutes, the Broncos were little more than a speed bump for the Cincinnati Bengals as their high-powered offense rampaged up and down their home field.

In what proved to be a 30-24 loss, Denver’s defense was able to generate pressure on Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow — to the tune of seven sacks. It delivered on a pair of first-half fourth downs to keep the Broncos in the contest. But yardage accumulated like the rainfall forecast for Cincinnati that finally hit about 90 minutes after Tee Higgins’ game-winning 3-yard touchdown catch kept the Bengals’ postseason hopes alive while draining the Broncos’ margin for error to zero.

Win next week, and the Broncos will be back in the postseason. Lose against a Chiefs side likely to use its backups and for the second time in the last 16 years, the team will have frittered away a 3-week chance to advance to the postseason with a single win.

One cannot say that going for two with eight seconds left would have prevented the defeat. But from a numbers perspective, it would have been a prudent call — even though, as Sean Payton made clear after the game, the possibility of a tie was in play, as a draw still put the Broncos in the postseason and eliminated the Bengals.

“We knew a tie, though, was for us just as beneficial as a win,” Payton said.

THE DATA

In the last 10 seasons, 2-point conversions have a success-rate of 48.2 percent. One-point PATs have a success rate of 94.2 percent — with Broncos kicker Wil Lutz having a success rate of 96.2 percent in games played outdoors.

Now, consider that road teams win 41.2 percent of the time in OT. Ties happen 6.1 percent of the time.

So, if it’s about getting the tie, you have a 47.3 percent chance of getting the desired result in overtime.

Consider the success rate in outdoor games for Lutz. Then take 47.3 percent of that. You’re now at a 45.4 percent chance to win by going for one compared with 48.2 percent on the 2-point conversion.

And none of that accounts for the state of the defense, which at the time of the decision had not forced a punt and had permitted at least three Cincinnati first downs on all but one of its non-kneeldown series. Only when Pat Surtain II jarred the football loose from Higgins with 5:08 remaining did the Broncos defense get off the field without allowing the chain to move at least three times.

“We felt like we had the momentum at that point,” Payton said of where the Broncos stood after what would be the game-tying touchdown.

And Payton doubled down on his choice.

“We discussed it all with plenty of time. Plenty of time,” he said. “And the decision we made was the right one.”

BROAD SAMPLE-SIZE NUMBERS DON’T ACCOUNT FOR THE STATE OF THE DEFENSE

Because if you bring the state of the defense into the discussion, there seems to be no question that the Broncos should have absolutely gone for two.


Denver hadn’t forced a Bengals punt in regulation. After coming into the game 31st in total defense in December, the Broncos found themselves gashed by the Bengals from start to finish.

They were only saved by a Ja’Marr Chase drop of a potential touchdown pass, two fourth-down stops and Surtain’s forced fumble, setting up an opportunity to drive to the game-winning field goal that evaporated two-and-a-half minutes later when Germaine Pratt intercepted Bo Nix.

“We gotta be able to put the fire out when something goes bad,” cornerback Riley Moss said. “That’s what great defenses do is they figure out a way to get off the field and you know we got to dial it in.”

The Bengals had 10 possessions Saturday that didn’t end in kneeldowns. Eight advanced inside the Denver 25-yard line.

“Sometimes you eat a [poop] sandwich and you gotta own it,” said Moss, who found himself targeted frequently — 8 times alone on throws to Higgins, per Next Gen Stats.

“And this isn’t the first time that’s happened in my career and it’s probably not gonna be the last. And the great ones are able to come back and be gritty and push through and that’s what I’m gonna do. And that’s what I know everyone on this team’s gonna do.”

The problem is, that sandwich wasn’t just served Saturday. It’s been offered for most of the month.

Denver ranked 31st in the NFL in total defense for the month of December prior to Week 17; it would be an upset if it’s not dead last after conceding 499 yards to Cincinnati on Saturday.

And that’s the reality in which the team finds itself.

The logic of the 2-point conversion will definitely be a topic of debate.

But what isn’t debatable is the defense’s struggles. Along with the run game, it’s one of two pillars Payton identified as key to supporting a rookie quarterback. For most of the season, it held up its end of the bargain.

In the last four games, it’s bent and broken. And now the Broncos head into the new year needing some duct tape and baling wire to fix it fast, or their playoff hopes might vanish as quickly as they became viable.