Could Aaron Jones make sense for the Broncos’ running game?

Aaron Jones still appears to be at the top of his game.

After moving to the Minnesota Vikings last year in free agency, he posted a career-high rushing total, added the third 50-catch season of his career and generally looked to be back in the prime form he displayed during a 2019-2022 run in which he tallied at least 1,100 yards from scrimmage each season. The issues that arose in 2023 that led the Packers to move on from him vanished, and he played in every game of the season for the third time in his career.

In seven seasons with Green Bay, the Packers usually went as Jones did. There wasn’t the same kind of correlation in Minnesota, but the Vikings were 8-1 when Jones accumulated at least 5 first downs and 6-3 when he didn’t.

But Jones turned 30 late last season. And his 2023 campaign — one in which he missed 6 games — compelled the Packers to absorb a $12.355 million dead-money charge to get him off their roster last year. Then Jones amassed 206 yards from scrimmage agianst his old team in two games.

Jones is set to become an unrestricted free agent. With Cleveland’s Nick Chubb still dealing with the lingering effects of tearing multiple knee ligaments in 2023 and Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris delivering good-but-not-great work in four 1,000-yard rushing seasons — three of which saw him nudge past the milestone figure by a few dozen yards — Jones is the most accomplished and prolific back poised to hit the market.

His versatility and pass-catching ability could also be a nice fit for the Broncos — a notion that Aaron Schatz recently raised in a piece at ESPN.com, projecting Jones as a Broncos signee. Jones is versatile enough to allow flexibility in the draft, as his all-around skills mean the Broncos could adapt his use around the strengths of a potential draft pick joining the team in a two-punch attack.

But does that make him the right fit given where he stands in his career?

WHAT COULD YOU REALLY EXPECT FROM AARON JONES IN YEAR NINE — AND BEYOND?

First, start with his workload: He has 1,755 total touches in eight previous seasons. Next, there is his recent form, as last year he again surpassed 1,100 yards from scrimmage, doing so for the fifth time in the last six years.

In 2024, Jones, Arizona’s James Conner, Houston’s Joe Mixon and New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara became the 35th, 36th, 37th and 38th running backs since 1980 to reach 1,100 yards from scrimmage in their eighth season while accumulating at least 1,500 touches in their first eight NFL campaigns. (It would have been 39, but Walter Payton’s 1982 season was cut short by a 57-day strike.)

So, how did the previous 34 hold up?

• A thin majority — 18 of 34 hit 1,100 yards from scrimmage in their ninth season, with the most recent being Derrick Henry in Baltimore last year.
• Of those 34, 28 returned for a 10th NFL season. Just 10 of those 28 hit 1,100 yards from scrimmage. Twenty-two of those 28 made it to an 11th season, but of that list, just two hit 1,100 scrimmage yards.

Henry and LeSean McCoy are the only running backs since 2013 with at least 1,500 touches in years 1-8 — and an 1,100-yards-from-scrimmage-season in Year 8 — to maintain that standard in Year 9. But there have been just seven opportunities in that span. With Jones, Kamar, Mixon and Conner, there could be four this season.

History says that in a vacuum, Jones is a coin flip.

Now, if the Broncos were to bring him in, they would bank on their training and conditioning program helping reduce his chances of injury, potentially allowing him to be on the positive side of that ledger.

Broncos coach Sean Payton speaks often of how his team’s methodology has helped his team reduce its injury rate, and this may well be a selling point as part of its pitch to Jones if they were to pursue him.

So, considering that, Jones is better than a coin toss. So, at the right price, it might make sense. And with the depth and breadth of this year’s running back class in the draft — as well as Jones’ age — his price tag might be a bargain.