NBA MVP odds: Jokic drops after Sunday’s loss to Thunder
Mar 10, 2025, 9:46 AM | Updated: 4:18 pm
This portion of the schedule was always going to be when the NBA MVP voters decided who their vote for the 2025 NBA MVP was, if they hadn’t already made up their minds. After Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets fell flat in the fourth quarter against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday, the odds for the Nuggets’ big man fell farther from the mountaintop.
After a great first quarter in which Jokic shot 6-of-11 from the field and had the Nuggets winning, he shot just 4-of-12 the rest of the way. He did take a spill in the first quarter, injuring his elbow, and was not his true self after that.
On the flip side, Gilgeous-Alexander had 40 points Sunday and didn’t miss a field goal in the final frame as the Thunder outscored the Nuggets by 21 points in the fourth quarter.
None of those events favor Jokic in the eyes of voters, and the shift in the odds reflected that.
As of Monday morning, Jokic is now +430 to win his fourth MVP, while Gilgeous-Alexander is the heavy favorite (-600) to be Oklahoma City’s third MVP in franchise history, and first since Russell Westbrook won the award in 2017 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Heading into Sunday’s clash, Jokic had made up a lot of ground on Gilgeous-Alexander after his historic 31/21/22 performance against the Phoenix Suns, as his odds jumped up to +220.
Does Jokic still have a chance to win?
Yes, Jokic will always have a chance to string together a couple of out-of-this-world performances to reassert himself in the conversations, but it has to start with Monday’s rematch versus the Thunder.
Over the previous years, two factors have shown to hold more weight than others when talking about the MVP race — head-to-head matchups and nationally televised games.
In three matchups against the Thunder this season, Jokic’s scoring is down, averaging just 21 points per game. While both his rebound and assist numbers are up from his season averages, scoring eight less points per game while shooting under 45% from the field is not beneficial for his MVP resume.
At no fault to Jokic, both of Denver’s losses to Oklahoma City this year have been on national TV, while the lone victory was not. There were not as many eyes watching the matchup in which Jokic won against Gilgeous-Alexander, while there were tons of eyes watching the losses, a 15-point no-show defeat in the season opener and Sunday’s 24-point Thunder victory.
In Jokic’s favor, Denver still has eight nationally televised games left on the schedule (including NBATV), seven of which are against teams in the top-eight in the Western Conference (the last game is against Sacramento, who is ninth).
The Nuggets are nine-point underdogs for Monday’s rematch against the Thunder. With Aaron Gordon likely being out after injuring his calf for a third time this season and Jokic being bothered by the elbow injury he suffered Sunday, Denver will need great performances from the rest of the team to pull off the upset.
