Aaron Gordon’s calf could be the X-Factor for the rest of Denver’s season

The Denver Nuggets lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday after a poor showing in the fourth quarter, but they were playing without one of their most important pieces in Aaron Gordon. Gordon played just seven minutes before leaving the game with right calf tightness.

Gordon’s right calf has been troublesome all season long, and probably won’t be fully healed until the 2025-2026 season. Out of the 64 games Denver has played this season, Gordon has appeared in just 38, and only started 29.

The Nuggets are 18-9 when Aaron Gordon starts and plays more than 10 minutes, and are 25-13 in the 38 games he’s played in. Without him, they’re just 16-10.

This is unfamiliar territory for Gordon, who has played at least 68 games in each of the three full seasons he has been in Denver. He has consistently been one of the team’s top defenders and one of Jokic’s favorite assist targets on the offensive end.

Offensively, the Nuggets have averaged 125.3 points per 100 possessions with Gordon on the floor, per PBP Stats. Without him, that number drops down to 118.5. He has shot 44.4% from 3-point range this season (including a 7-10 performance against Phoenix last week), by far a career-high, and the best number on the team (minimum six games played).

With Gordon on the floor, Denver has a net rating of 10.37. Without him, that number drops to just 2.37. Denver’s field goal percentage increases by almost 2.5% with him on the floor.

The bottom line? Denver needs Gordon to be successful.

Defensively, his size and quickness is such an asset to the team. For players like Jimmy Butler and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who are bigger than Christian Braun and have a mismatch against him, Gordon is able to step in and guard them. His defensive capabilities have been put on full display in the playoffs, especially in the 2023 Western Conference Semifinals in which he held Kevin Durant to shoot just 45.3% from the field.

Even on guys who are bigger than him, Gordon is able to use his strength to hold his own defensively and keep them out of the paint.

Great defense from Aaron Gordon on this Giannis Antetokounmpo post-up pic.twitter.com/MTGTBeItLZ

— Matt Brooks (@MattBrooksNBA) February 28, 2025

With just 18 games left in the regular season, how will the Nuggets manage Gordon’s injury? Especially after yesterday, it’s clear that this team needs him if they want any chance of beating Oklahoma City or other top teams in a playoff series.

One option is to hold him out for the regular season, which would give him a little over a month to recover and prepare for the playoffs. However, that could cause him to be rusty coming out of the gates. Right now, the Nuggets would face the Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs, and that is not a series the team wants Gordon to be rusty in. He would be the Nuggets’ best option to guard Jimmy Butler in that series, as Christian Braun would most likely be tasked with the Steph Curry assignment.

Option B would be to have him return late in the regular season so he can get some game experience under his belt before diving into playoff basketball. The Nuggets end the season with a stretch against Sacramento, Memphis and Houston (not an easy three-game stretch by any means), with the Sacramento game being on April 9. If he were to return for that game, it would be exactly a month since Sunday’s loss when he suffered the injury.

Gordon missed just under three weeks after injuring the calf on Christmas Day, and missed four weeks the first time he injured it back on Nov. 4. He has also been fighting an ankle injury recently, but the calf is the larger focus at the moment. This would put his return right around the end of the season, but with the Play-In Tournament taking place, he could buy almost an extra two weeks of rest if he waits until the playoffs.

This isn’t the first time Denver has dealt with calf troubles, as Jamal Murray struggled with a left calf strain throughout the playoffs last year, which clearly limited him in the Conference Semifinals. After seeing how that impacted the team last season, it would not be a surprise if the Nuggets were extra conservative with Gordon heading into the postseason.

Every year with Nikola Jokic needs to be maximized for Denver, and rushing back Gordon would be a one-way ticket to wasting a year of Jokic’s prime.

Gordon is out for tonight’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and there has been no announcement on his exact timetable or when he will be re-evaluated.