The Denver Nuggets could be in jeopardy of losing home court advantage in the playoffs

The Denver Nuggets have consistently been one of the top teams in the Western Conference in the Jokic era. Denver has made the playoffs every season since the 2018-2019 season, and haven’t been a top-four seed just one time, the 2021-2022 season in which Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. were both injured. The Nuggets were the No. 6 seed and lost to the eventual-champion Golden State Warriors in five games.

Home court advantage, even if it’s just for one series, is of the essence in the playoffs. Even though Denver hasn’t had its best season at home this year, being at Ball Arena in the altitude is much better than being anywhere else.

As of Friday morning, the Nuggets are tied with the Memphis Grizzlies for the No. 2 seed in the West. The Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets are knocking on the door, as the two are tied for the No.4 seed. Right behind those two is a surging Golden State team who is four games behind Denver.

The Nuggets are currently 0-1 against the Rockets, 1-1 the Grizzlies and 2-1 against the Lakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker when deciding seeding at the end of the season, and with two games left against the Rockets, and one against the Grizzlies and the Lakers, the Nuggets have to go 4-0 in those games (three of which are on the road) if they want to hold control of the tiebreakers.

For Friday’s game against the Lakers, the Nuggets will have it a bit easier as the Lakers will be without both LeBron James and Luka Doncic for the contest.

However, the three losses the Nuggets have had against these teams have all been by at least 15 points (Nikola Jokic did not play against Memphis).

As it stands, there is not an easy matchup for Denver in the first round, as it will likely be one of the aformentioned teams or the Minnesota Timberwolves, who just blew Denver out at Ball Arena.

The Nuggets are just one of three teams who have had home court in at least five of the previous six postseasons. Milwaukee has been a top-four seed all six years while Boston has been a top-four seed in five. Amidst a Western Conference that has been more challenging than the East recently, Denver has been the pinnacle of consistency.

Through 66 games, the Nuggets only have 14 road losses, tied for the fifth-best number in the league. While they’ve shown that they’re capable of going on the road and winning, a road game in the playoffs is an entirely different world than a road game in the regular season.

In favor of the Nuggets, everyone in the 2-6 range in the West has a tough schedule coming up. The Lakers and Grizzlies have the toughest remaining schedules of the bunch, while the Nuggets and Warriors have moderately difficult schedules. The Rockets have the easiest of the bunch, but are still in the middle of the league in terms of overall strength of schedule.

Momentum is another factor to keep in mind, and the Nuggets currently have zero momentum heading into the final stretch. In the previous 10 games, Denver has the 20th-ranked net rating in the league, a poor number compared to where the team usually ranks.

The Efficiency Landscape. What Jumps Out? pic.twitter.com/OHUFNnVWGk

— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) March 14, 2025

While the Nuggets have been struggling, the other teams in the West have been playing some great basketball as of late. No team who is trying to win a championship wants to be in the neighborhood of the Atlanta Hawks, who have been the epitome of average in recent years in the league.

The absence of Aaron Gordon is another factor to consider for the Nuggets as they try to stay ahead. These other teams are also dealing with their own respective injuries, but Gordon’s presence on the floor is pivotal to the Nuggets having any success when the playoffs come around.

The Nuggets can’t fall asleep down the stretch and put themselves in an unfavorable situation when the first round rolls around. For a team that has gone 5-5 in its previous 10 games, a change in attitude is needed in order to retain a top-four seed in the West for the sixth time in seven years.